The field is starting to take shape for next year’s gubernatorial election in Alaska, and although it is still very early to make predictions, here is a quick look at who is currently running and some guesstimates about their chances. Note: Alaska will use ranked-choice voting for this election, which means the top four candidates in the open “jungle primary” will advance to the final round in the General election.

Democrats

The D’s have been slow to fill out their roster. Democrat politicians either don’t want to enter the race, fearing a defeat to a Republican will end their political careers, or they have been holding out because one of the big-name Democrats might still file to run.

Tom Begich – The only Democrat to have filed so far is former State Senator Tom Begich. Tom is from the traditional left-leaning side of the Begich clan. He spent two undistinguished terms in the Alaska Senate and chose not to run for reelection in 2022. Begich’s tenure in the state senate was largely unaccomplished. He is more known for who his father was than any achievement of his own. His candidacy feels more like a placeholder than a serious attempt to win the nomination.

Democrat Wildcards

Mary Peltola – One reason many viable Democrats may not have entered the race yet is that a rumor is circulating suggesting that Mary Peltola may run for governor. She has yet to file or start a campaign, and the clock is ticking. Fundraising is the number one objective for candidates at this point in the election, and by delaying, Peltola gives other candidates a chance to win endorsements. Peltola has name recognition and the obvious support from bush Alaska. If she enters the race, Peltola will be favored to win the Democrat primary election.

Lisa Murkowski – That is, unless Lisa Murkowski, yes, that Lisa Murkowski, enters the race as a Democrat. Our RINO senior senator has teased running for governor. However, Murkowski is very unpopular with Republicans in this state and has been censured on multiple occasions by the Alaska GOP. Do not expect Lisa Murkowski to enter the crowded field in the primary. Even with RCV’s help, Murkowski would not do well, and she is smart enough to avoid that embarrassing loss.

However, running as a Democrat might be a different story. There is only one Democrat currently in the race, and Murkowski has solid support among liberals, both in rural Alaska and the urban strongholds of Anchorage and her hometown of Fairbanks. Consider a ticket featuring Lisa Murkowski running for governor and Mary Peltola running for lieutenant governor in the Democrat primary. They would be huge favorites to advance through the primary and would be formidable in the General election. If Princess Lisa runs as a Democrat, she will probably be the next governor. Remember, you heard it here first.

Republicans

Eight Republicans have entered the race so far, and a few more may still join. Here are the candidates in alphabetical order, along with their chances of winning the GOP primary election.

Click Bishop – Click Bishop, a former state senator from Fairbanks, was one of the first Republicans to file to run for governor, but he faces several challenges. He is not well-known outside of his hometown. He is also a squishy Republican known for joining with Democrats to form governing coalitions in the state senate. His opponents are likely already prepared with their talking points, which will label him a political turncoat. In the age of MAGA, Republicans like Mr. Bishop won’t do well in the primary. You will not see Mr. Bishop as a GOP candidate next November. Chance of Mr. Bishop advancing through the primary and being a Republican candidate for governor next fall = 3.0%.

Adam Crum – Alaska Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum has announced his candidacy for governor. The largely unknown Crum has been a member of the Dunleavy administration since 2018, and by all accounts is a solid and trustworthy individual with accounting expertise. His only problem is that solid, trustworthy individuals with accounting expertise are rarely elected to leadership roles. Crum would have done better by first running for a seat in the legislature to broaden his experience level and show some accomplishments before running for governor. Chance of Crum advancing through the primary and being a Republican candidate for governor next fall = 1.0%.

Nancy Dahlstrom – Current Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom should be the favored candidate in next year’s primary, only she isn’t. To give Dahlstrom credit, she dropped out of the race for Congress last fall and avoided repeating the Ranked Choice Voting debacle that led to Mary Peltola’s election victory in 2022. Dahlstrom deserves credit for her wisdom in making that move, but she has a bigger problem. She has done nothing in office to prove she deserves a promotion. Dahlstrom’s only job as Lt. Governor is overseeing elections. Alaska has the dirtiest voter rolls in the country, and Dahlstrom has taken no action to address the situation. Voters in this MAGA era are not going to give a promotion to a do-nothing Lt. Governor unconcerned about election integrity. While she has name recognition, the chance of Dahlstrom advancing through the primary and being a Republican candidate for governor next fall = 16.0%.

Edna DeVries – Edna DeVries is currently the Mayor of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and a long-time Alaskan. DeVries is a fiscal conservative and has experience serving in the state senate before she was elected mayor. DeVries hits all the high points important to conservative voters. She believes in cutting the state budget, paying the full statutory Permanent Fund Dividend, and making the state live within its means. She also supports some of the education reforms proposed by current Governor Dunleavy. Her biggest challenge is being a mayor in the Mat-Su Valley. While this is one of the centers for conservatism in our state, she is not well-known outside the valley. The chance of DeVries advancing through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall is 16.0%.

Dr. Matt Heilala – Dr. Matt Heilala’s only political experience is as an appointed member of the state medical board. He has never won an elected office. Heilala’s most significant qualification as a Republican is his long history of donating to the Alaska GOP, as well as his claim to be an individual who can work across party lines. Like Click Bishop, the last thing this state needs is another unknown squishy Republican who wants to work across the aisle with the Democrats. His campaign feels like a vanity project, where a wealthy and successful individual who excels in one field believes they can be good at everything they try. If the good doctor wants to start a career in politics, he would be better off filing to run for a seat in the legislature. The chance of Heilala through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall is 8.0%.

Shelley Hughes – Current state senator, Shelley Hughes from Palmer, has what it takes to do well in next year’s primary. She has strong conservative views. Unlike the other members of the RINO Gang of Seven in Juneau, she did not betray her voters and join with Democrats to form a governing coalition in the legislature. In a regular election, Hughes could do very well in the primary. Unfortunately, Hughes’s biggest challenge is Edna DeVries; they are the same candidate. Both are conservative Republicans from the Mat-Su and are likely to be competing for the same donors and voters. It will be a challenge for the candidates to distinguish themselves from each other. The smart thing for them to do would be to sit down over a cup of coffee and decide which one of them will drop out of the election and endorse the other. The chances of Hughes advancing through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall are 23.0%.

James Parkin – James Parkin is a retired schoolteacher from a small town in Southeast Alaska. His biggest challenge is that he is unknown and lives in a part of the state with a small population. He has no leadership experience, except for his role in a school classroom, and will not be the next governor of Alaska. Perhaps he chose to campaign so he could use it as a teaching lesson for his students in his government class. Whatever the reasons, the chance of Parkin advancing through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall is 0.0%.

Bernadette Wilson – Anchorage resident Bernadette Wilson has no experience in elected office in this state, but is the favorite to win next year’s GOP primary. Wilson has everything needed to do well. She is telegenic, she supports MAGA, and she is from Anchorage, our state’s largest city. Wilson will have name recognition from being involved in conservative politics in this state. Her position on important conservative issues, such as repealing the controversial RCV voting system currently used in Alaska, will endear her to the voters. She has served in conservative groups, including as executive director of the Alaska Policy Forum and as state director for Americans for Prosperity. In addition to those important credits on her resume, Wilson is a member of the Naknek Native Village Council, which will give her support in bush Alaska. She is an experienced communicator, having hosted a radio show, so she should excel in debates and television interviews. If you could draw up the ideal GOP candidate for next year’s election in Alaska, it would be Bernadette Wilson. The smartest thing she could do would be to get an early endorsement from President Trump, which would seal her victory in the primary. As long as there are no skeletons in her closet, the chance of Wilson advancing through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall is 31.0%.

Treg Taylor – Another rumor going around is that Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor is planning to run for governor. Unfortunately, Taylor has the same problem as Nancy Dahlstrom. He had a position of responsibility and failed to do the job. If Taylor were looking for some free campaign advice, I would tell him that his only chance is to take bold action to resolve the unconstitutional SCO 1993 issue. Something truly innovative is needed, such as joining a consent decree with the Alaska Grand Jurors Association. Unfortunately, Taylor appears to lack the courage or wisdom to make that effort. Should he declare a candidacy, the chance of Taylor advancing through the primary and becoming a Republican candidate for governor next fall is <5.0%

Conclusion

While the predictions made about the GOP candidate’s probability of success may seem like personal opinion or wild guesses, the percentages used are actually the results of a poll conducted by the District 6 GOP at the Ninilchik State Fair earlier this month. Admittedly, this is a tiny sample size and only reflects the opinions of conservative voters on the southern Kenai Peninsula. The results of the poll are presented below.

For individuals still considering running in the next statewide election, you still have plenty of time. However, please note that the primary election filing deadline is June 1, 2026, with the primary election scheduled for August 18, 2026, which is just over one year from now. A year is a lifetime in politics, and a lot can happen in the meantime. The results of the primary election next year could differ significantly from this “preseason” prediction. Good luck to all the candidates who run. May the best man or woman win.

The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

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