I recently attempted to analyze the Alaska State House District 6 race and predict the winner, an effort that contains significant potential for error. Well, I’m going one step further and will try to analyze the Homer mayor’s race for the upcoming October 1st city election. Predicting local elections in a remote town in Alaska with a small population and no reliable polling organization is a fool’s errand, but here goes.

Analyzing this election involves three critical issues: the candidates, voter turnout, and executing the strategy for victory. Each of these issues will be examined separately. 

The Candidates

Rachel Lord is a known commodity in Homer. She has been a member of the Homer City Council since 2017, and although her voter registration is nonpartisan, her record aligns with a left-of-center worldview. Lord is currently a city council member and runs a small flower-growing business in Homer, but she has little other professional experience. 

Lord’s political ideology can be demonstrated by examining her involvement in the library book controversy in 2022. The Homer Library Advisory Board (LAB) had approved the placement of books with what critics said was inappropriate sexual content in the child’s section of the library. As you might expect, there was significant public opposition. The LAB held public hearings on the subject, and city council member Lord testified in front of the LAB in her “capacity as a private citizen.” 

The problem is that the LAB reports to Lord as a sitting city council member through the city manager. Lord is their boss’s boss. When she testified before the Library Advisory Board, Lord’s comments likely had an outsized impact on the LAB’s decision to keep the controversial books in the children’s section and reject the compromise opponents had proposed. Some community members thought a senior city official should not be using their position to influence a supposedly non-partisan committee and that Lord’s actions were a misuse of her authority.

Jim Anderson is unknown to most voters and has no local political record on which we can judge him. He is a registered Republican and was born in Homer. His parents were old Alaskan homesteaders and ranchers, and Jim grew up on their ranch out on the North Fork. 

Like many local kids, Anderson left Homer to attend college and spent most of his adult life outside of Alaska working in the corporate world after graduation. Jim and his wife returned to Homer recently, and he now runs a consulting business. 

Jim is an inspirational speaker who professes his belief in God and the power of prayer. While he has no local political record to judge him on, Jim stresses his experience working in the corporate world, where he was able to find consensus when dealing with opposing viewpoints. He says he plans to unite the different political factions in town and that his only objective as mayor is to be a cheerleader for the community to make Homer the best it can be. I have listened to him speak recently in two candidate forums, and he comes across as honest and sincere.

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout is the most critical single factor in determining the winner of this election. As discussed in a past post, Homer is a majority conservative town with an unfortunate blue voting tendency when voter turnout is low.  Homer votes for the most conservative candidate in presidential or statewide elections with a high voter turnout.

For example, Donald Trump won most of Homer’s votes in 2016 and 2020 and will get the most votes again this November 5th. The same is true for gubernatorial elections. Homer voted for Mike Dunleavy the last two times he ran, not for the more liberal Democrat candidates he opposed. 

However, for some reason, conservatives fail to turn out for city elections for mayor and city council, which results in a very left-of-center council governing our town that does not represent the majority of people living in the community.

It is clear that Homer has elected only one conservative city council member in the past four years, and that was when voter turnout was over 25%. In most years, voter turnout is dismal, and if only a small number of liberal voters turn out, they decide the election. 

There are currently 5,412 registered voters in Homer. If we assume 25% is the cutoff for electing a Republican to city office in Homer, there will need to be 1,353 voters turn out on election day to achieve that number. 

Unfortunately for Republicans, the average turnout in the past four elections suggests that about 1,030 voters will likely turn out for this year’s municipal election. This isn’t enough voters to elect a Republican mayor by about 323 votes. If Republicans want to elect Jim Anderson as mayor, they need to energize 323 more Republican voters to turn out and vote.

The Strategies for Victory

Rachel Lord’s strategy is easy. Her record is polarizing, and she will be supported by the vocal minority of people in Homer with a left-of-center worldview. For Rachel Lord to win, the voter turnout should be low in this election, probably less than 20%. That benefits her. She wants a stealthy election that flies under the radar and where few voters participate. The partisan leftists will show up to support her as they always do, but the average conservative is focused on the presidential election in November. They might not even realize there is a city-wide election until after it happens. Lord’s strategy is to rely on her partisan leftist base to sneak into office and hope the Republicans fail to come out to vote.

Jim Anderson’s strategy is just the opposite. He wants the largest voter turnout possible. The more voters, the redder the electorate gets. If I were advising Mr. Anderson, which I am not, I would tell him to get a list of Republican voters in Homer and call every one of them to ask them to come to one of his candidate forums to meet him. Anderson is an energizing speaker with an inspirational message and will easily win the debate against the more partisan Rachel Lord. 

In the final days before the election, Mr. Anderson should call the Republican voters again and remind them to turn out to vote on election day – October 1st. If they can’t make it to the precinct to vote, he should ask them to get absentee ballots and vote early. The Republican party should arrange rides or carpools for those who find it challenging to make it to the polls on election day. Ensuring the largest voter turnout possible will be best for his victory.

Forecast

So, who am I predicting as the winner? Rachel Lord has a natural advantage because Homer City elections historically have low voter turnout. 

Mr. Andersen’s fate is in his hands. He will win if he gets the voters energized at the candidate forums, gets them to show up on October 1st, and there is a relatively high voter turnout that day. A voter participation of more than 25% means an Anderson victory. A turnout of less than 25% indicates a Lord victory. That is my prediction.

LEARN MORE

The Homer City Election begins Monday, Sept. 16th, with Early & Absentee in Person Voting conducted at City Hall Cowles Council Chambers. This will be available Monday through Friday 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. up until Election Day on October 1st when polls will be open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

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