Alaska can look forward to far fewer babies and many more older people over the next quarter century.
According to a new report by Alaska’s Department of Labor and Workforce Development, the agency is predicting its first-ever long-term statewide population decline.

Alaska’s long-term population projections show the state declining from about 737,000 people in 2023 to 723,000 by 2050, a 2% decrease that will result in massive changes across large swaths of the state.
Prolonged net migration losses, combined with far fewer births amid an aging population is driving the prediction that Alaska is entering a demographic winter.

“While the size of Alaska’s population is not projected to change much over the next 27 years, its makeup will shift to a considerably older state with a much smaller number of children,” the report states.

The latest projections utilize a rolling 30-year average of migration trends.

“That’s not to say we won’t see spikes and dips in migration, but if the next 30 years resemble the previous 30, that rate is the average amount we expect to lose to migration each year between 2023 and 2050,” the report notes.

Since migration is difficult to predict, the report produced two other possibilities, using higher and lower incoming migration scenarios.

Under a higher net migration rate of 0.5% a year, Alaska would gain 3,700 to 4,500 people annually for a population of 911,100 by 2050. With a lower projected migration rate of -1%, the state’s population would drop to just 587,600 – losing between 5,900 to 7,300 people annually.

MORE DEATHS, FEWER BABIES

The other driving forces behind Alaska’s estimated population decline are fewer births and more deaths.
“Natural increase, or births minus deaths, has trended downward since the late 2000s with the decline accelerating in the middle of the last decade,” the report notes. “During the past two years, natural increase hit its lowest level since the early 1950s, when Alaska had fewer than 200,000 people.”

As for the future, natural increase will plummet dramatically, the state predicts.

“Alaska gained 3,550 residents through natural increase over the past year, and we project that will fall to just 300 in 2049-2050,” the report states. “As births have decreased, deaths have increased more. Alaska recorded 5,580 deaths last year. We project deaths will rise 37 percent by 2050, peaking at 7,740 in 2045-2046, the year the oldest baby boomers would turn 100.”

Increased deaths will be driven by the simple fact that Alaska will be a generally older population over the next few decades.

“Deaths are sure to increase unless a massive number of older people leave the state, but births are far less certain,” the report states. “We expect births to decline by 13 percent between 2023 and 2050. Similar to deaths, fewer births will result from an older population; that is, the population will have fewer women of child-bearing age.”

Despite Alaska’s gloomy population predictions, things may be far worse across much of the country.
“Alaska’s fertility rate is 1.9, below the level needed to replace the existing population (2.1),” the state report observes. “Despite being below replacement level, Alaska’s fertility rate remains among the highest in the country. Only South Dakota and Nebraska had higher fertility rates in 2022, and no state’s rate reached replacement level that year. At 2.0, South Dakota’s rate came closest.”

ALASKA NATIVE POPULATION EXPECTED TO GROW

While the state is expected to lose people, the Alaska Native population is predicted to grow by 13% through 2050, rising from 160,300 to 181,900 over that time span. This is due to this group’s higher fertility rate of 2.8%.

FEWER KIDS AND WORKING-AGE PEOPLE

Alaskans between ages 20 to 64 are likely to see a steady decline between now and 2030, which is expected to shrink the working-age population from 430,700 to 423,700.

“The working-age population will then rebound to its current size by 2040 before dropping again as millennials start to reach retirement age,” the report predicts. “Once millennials begin to turn 65, the working-age population will decline rapidly because the younger generations aren’t large enough to replace them.”

Alaska will likely have far fewer children and teens as well. The current number of Alaskans, 19 years and younger, is the smallest it’s been since 1991, at 195,700.

Through 2050, this group will decline by an estimated 14 percent, to 169,100 kids and teens,” the report warns. “A falling youth population will likely mean future labor shortages.”

GREATEST POPULATION LOSS IN SOUTHEAST

Some areas of the state are expected to grow while others see massive population drop-offs.

The Southwest Region is expected to see an 11% growth through 2050, thanks to higher fertility and a younger population base. Likewise, Alaska’s Norther Region is predicted to see a 4% population jump due to similar factors.

The only other area that is likely to see population growth is Anchorage/Mat-Su, but all the growth will come from outside Alaska’s largest city.

Overall, the combined area is expected to increase by 1%.

“As has been the case since 2016, though, only Mat-Su will grow,” the report notes. “Anchorage’s population is projected to shrink.”

Areas expected to lose population are the Gulf Coast (-4%) and the Interior (-7%), as well as Southeast, where the population will plummet by -17%.

“Southeast is older than most of the state and its birth rates are lower, leading to natural decrease,” the report notes. “Deaths outnumbering births throughout the projected period and net migration losses point to a steady population decline in Southeast.”

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