Newly released Data for Progress polling shows former Alaska Congresswoman Mary Peltola with the highest favorability among Alaska’s top candidates in a hypothetical ranked-choice election for governor.

When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alaska’s top elected officials, 52% of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of Peltola, compared with 43% unfavorable, for a +9 net favorability. Peltola is the only recent statewide elected official who is viewed favorably by a majority of Alaska voters. Gov. Mike Dunleavy and Representative Nick Begich III remain unpopular at −7 net favorability and −6 net favorability, respectively, while Sen. Dan Sullivan comes in at neutral net favorability. This is our third consecutive poll to find Peltola the most popular politician in Alaska.

Republican candidates for governor remain relatively unknown. Nancy Dahlstrom, currently Alaska’s lieutenant governor, is unknown and unpopular, coming in at 20% favorable, 34% unfavorable, and 46% haven’t heard enough to say. Other declared and potential Republican candidates — Bernadette Wilson, former State Sen. Click Bishop, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, former Alaska Department of Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum, and Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor — are all unknown to two-thirds or more of Alaska voters. (Matt Heilala and State Sen. Shelley Hughes declared their candidacies after the survey was finalized.)

Murkowski’s Favorability Has Tumbled

Alaska voters view U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski unfavorably by a −23-point margin. This represents a dramatic drop since the last survey in March, when her favorability was net positive (+1).

While Republican voter sentiment is mostly unchanged, Democratic and Independent voters view Murkowski much worse now, dropping from +63 to +26 among Democrats and falling from +12 to -21 among Independents.

Peltola trails in hypothetical Senate race, but ahead in governor race

Were Peltola to run for U.S. Senate in 2026, the new poll finds her narrowly behind incumbent Sullivan in a hypothetical matchup.

Most of the 4% of voters who responded “Not sure” are Independents and Republicans, so those votes would likely break towards Sullivan and increase his margin.

Were Peltola to enter the race for governor, however, the poll indicates she would be the top candidate.

The November 2026 election for governor will be conducted using ranked-choice voting, where voters will be asked to rank four candidates. The poll presented a hypothetical set of eight potential candidates, and voters were asked to rank their top four choices from 1–4.

Among first-round choices, Peltola has a wide lead.

In simulating the ranked-choice election, the latest poll finds that Peltola reaches the 50% majority threshold needed to win when there are four candidates left.

“These results suggest that, were a hypothetical primary to take place tomorrow with these eight candidates, the four to advance to the general would be Peltola, Dahlstrom, Wilson, and Bishop,” the polling company stated. “And were the ranked-choice general election to take place the next day, Peltola would win in the first round.”

Hypothetical Governor ranked-choice results – round-by-round

In these initial ranking results of the poll’s hypothetical ranked-choice governor election, 18% of voters indicate they are not sure of any of their rankings.

After the elimination of DeVries, however, whose votes go mostly to Dahlstrom and Wilson, Round 2 results look like this:

Round 3 results after eliminating Taylor, whose votes go to the remaining Republican candidates:

Round 4 results after eliminating Crum, whose votes mostly go to the remaining Republican candidates:

Begich is eliminated next in Round 5. About half of his vote share goes to Peltola, a fifth goes to Dahlstrom, and an eighth goes to Wilson. Peltola achieves the majority needed to win the hypothetical election:

The hypothetical ranked-choice election ends here, as Peltola has exceeded a 50% majority. However, if elimination were to continue, Peltola’s margin would only grow, as about a quarter of Bishop’s vote share would go to Peltola.

To explore a scenario where undecided Republicans come home and rank the red, the polling company tried hypothetically distributing to Dahlstrom all the “Not sure” responses from Republican respondents, as well as all votes exhausted when we eliminate Republican candidates. Even then, Peltola would still finish ahead of Dahlstrom in the final round.

Survey Method

From July 21 to 27, 2025, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 678 likely voters in Alaska using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and recalled vote. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±4 percentage points.

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