Reporting on GOP Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka’s strong showing in recent polls, and President Trump’s recent endorsement, CNN’s Chris Cillizza admits Lisa Murkowski is in trouble, but thinks she’s still got a shot at winning. “She’s not a lost cause just yet,” he claims. He bases his tepid optimism on three factors:
“She has a very well-known name.”
It’s true that the Murkowski political dynasty has held a seat in the U.S. Senate for 40 consecutive years. But it’s not true that there is something politically positive about the name. The founder of the dynasty, Frank Murkowski, was humiliated when he ran for reelection as Governor in 2006. In the Republican primary that year, he came in third, with 19% of the vote. I don’t believe a sitting Governor has been more roundly repudiated in American political history. He lost, essentially, because of his arrogance. His daughter has the same problem. Ominously, the most recent poll shows Lisa Murkowski’s support is at —- 19%! Spooky.
With the recent endorsement of President Trump, Tshibaka has united the entire Republican Party behind her.
“Alaska has an open primary.”
While it’s true that Prop 2, and the jungle primary it introduced to Alaska, means that Murkowski can avoid a certain loss in a Republican primary, this may not redound entirely to her advantage. If, as expected, the Alaska GOP adopts a rule which calls for a party endorsement at the state convention, Tshibaka will win an overwhelming majority of delegates, and emerge as the unquestioned choice of the Republican Party. Murkowski would be wise not to place her name before the convention. Her support would probably be in single digits.
“Alaska has ranked choice voting.”
But if the past is any guide, and it usually is, ranked choice voting will result in more electoral victories for conservative candidates in Alaska. Over the past 40 years, when conservatives have split their votes, Democrats get elected. Now, under the instant runoff system, voters who supported the second-place conservative can switch to the leader in the second round.
Democrat Governors Sheffield (1982), Cowper (1986) and Knowles (1994) were all elected with a minority of votes. In each case Libertarian or Alaska Independence candidates pulled votes from the Republican, and the Democrat won. In 2008 Mark Begich only beat Ted Stevens 48%-47%. Without the AIP candidate in the race, Stevens could have pulled it off. And there have been countless legislative races where Alaska conservatives have split their vote, allowing the Democrat to win.
ALASKA WATCHMAN DIRECT TO YOUR INBOX
In the past 46 years, we’ve had around 50 statewide elections, for governor, U. S. senator, and U. S. representative. A Democrat got a majority of the vote once – Tony Knowles was reelected in 1998 with 51% of the vote. But that was a special year. The Alaska GOP repudiated its own nominee, John Lindauer, and endorsed the write in campaign of Robin Taylor. In a normal election, without the corrupt and fraudulent Lindauer, Taylor would have won.
The liberal dark money groups behind Prop 2 weren’t trying to help conservatives with ranked choice voting, of course. This initiative was designed for one, express purpose: to help Lisa Murkowski get reelected. But there are certain dubious assumptions built into this scheme. First and foremost, Murkowski has to finish ahead of the Democrat in the first round. Second, Democrat voters must overwhelmingly prefer Murkowski to Tshibaka. Third, the conservative (Kelly Tshibaka) cannot reach 50% plus one without Democrat or Murkowski votes.
In Congressional elections, Alaska is a bright red state. With the recent endorsement of President Trump, Tshibaka has united the entire Republican Party behind her. The 2022 off year Congressional election looks to be a wave for Republican conservatives nationally, and Kelly Tshibaka can ride that wave right into the United States Senate.
17 Comments
VOTE this Loser, swamp creature, Lisa OUT
CNN is a Loser,Lame ,new show.
Turn it off now, smash your tv
Lisa is a goner!
Support Kelly Tshibaka at KellyforAK.com!
AS LONG AS THE TREASONOUS COMPLICIT IN OUR GOVT ALLOW DOMINION TO STAY OUR VOTE IS WORTHLESS…. AND SHE WILL REMAIN….. WHAT THE HELL DONT YOU SEE? ARE ALL YOU SO DELUSIONAL TO UNDERSTAND THE COMMUNIST CHINESE PARTY HAS CONTROL AND MANIPULATES WHOM THEY WANT IN OUR STATES OFFICE… THE VOTE IS MANIPULATED THROUGH COMPUTERS AND THIS IS WHY WE ARE SO SCREWED… WE HAVE NO REPRESENTATION BUT A FEW GOOD PEOPLE. LOOK AT THE FLIPPERS IN OFFICE THAT PROMISE US THEY WILL FOLLOW THE LAW BUT GET THERE TO JUNEAU AND CRAP ON US,,, THEY ARE TREASONOUS AND ARE SELLING US OUT TO CHINA…. WAKE THE HELL UP!!!!!
Rep David Eastman stood alone and defended our vote by going down to Maricopa Arizona and observed the Audit process. All others that should be fighting to protect our vote cowered and hid!!!!!!! David Eastman is hated in Juneau because he has integrity and that is supplied by GOD and GODS strength, The Legislature is full up of corrupt self serving minions of the dark side, They openly show us this as they subvert our Constitution and say the. law is not for the Lawmakers. Ivy Spoonholz says this out loud and proud as I saw last night on a Politidick video of an Eastman town meeting please look it up. David explains many things that exemplify our corrupt thieving Legislature and their justifications of their criminality…. The time is coming when the exposure and containment of these criminals will overflow. What will bring this to a head is DOMINION. and that is. coming. All but David Eastman hoped it would just go away but it wont and the day of reckoning is upon us and those who swore an oath that said they would stand and protect our Constitution will be tried for treason as a foreign Govt stole our vote. Eastman stood with GOD and you corrupt rest of then goods took the devils hand. You showed your worth. to Freedom and Liberty by hiding…… There. is no going back as you cannot stop the rise of. the Patriots who have been awakened…. Your lot is sealed by your inaction.
The WHO. now says they recommend no one under 18 get the experimental poison JAB……. FAUCI ZINK AND DUNLEAVY .. HOW THE HELL DO YOU SLEEP? HOW MANY WILL SUFFER FROM THIS EVIL THEY PROMOTED? HOW MANY HAVE DIED? YOU OUTLAWED THE MEDICINES THAT WOULD Save lives and you promoted toxic experimental evil….. the screams of hell await evil that distort truth and promote genocide no matter what role you play….
When are people going to actually be held accountable..
Why is Alaska using corrupt voting machines..
-Common sense is not common, especially in politics…. if only they listened t the people and not their bank accounts.
-Good Riddance Lisa, Bye bye =]
A citizen at the David Eastman meeting last night spoke of. a zoom call prior to the Nov election where Lt Gov Kevin Meyer was urged to not seek out these Dominion machines because they were already proven to be tapped into to flip votes…. 100,000 Alaska citizens identity were stolen due to Meyers decision to purchase these communist Chinese party owned implements of war and treason against our Nation….. Mark Zuckerberg spent $800 million on making sure the. guidelines were followed as to a strict code in DOMINION Protocol? $800 million…. Can we audit Bank accounts now please?
THOSE COMPLICIT. SOLD OUR CHILDREN INTO SLAVERY ,,,,, WE MUST STAND UP THEY ARE THE ENEMY WITHIN. SATANS CHILDREN TELL US ALL DAY LONG TO PRAY TO GOD THAT HE DOES SOMETHING WHILE THEY RAPE OUR CHILDRENS MINDS IN OUR PUBLIC SCHOOLS….. THEY LAUGH AT US IN GLEE AS WE BOW LIKE COWARDS AND HOPE GOD WILL DO SOMETHING SO DISGUSTING HOW THEY CONTROL PEOPLE THAT SAY THEY LOVE THEIR CHILDREN…… GOD GAVE US HANDS AND FEET AND STRENTH OF BODY TO STAND AND FIGHT FOR OUR CHILDREN AS THE DEVILS CHILDREN DO FOR THEIR TWISTED AGENDAS…. THE BIG LIE IS THIS APATHETIC POSTURE WHILE THE RAPACIOUS CANNIBAL SATANISTS DEVOUR OUR NATION AND HER CHILDREN…… THE COMMUNIST NEA IS THE WHORE THAT WE HAVE TRUSTED TO TEND OUR CHILDREN,,, WE MUST START THERE,,, CLEAN OUT THE AGENDA BASED INDOCTRINATION CENTERS CALLED SCHOOLS… MANY POSITIONS IN OUR GOVT CAME OUT OF THESE NEA AGENDA BASED INDOCTRINATION CENTERS AND THEY DO NOT RISE WITHIN THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT TOWING THE AGENDA LINE…. WAKE UP LOOK AROUND JUDGE A TREE BY ITS FRUIT….OUR TIME IS NOW TO DEFEND OUR CHILDREN AND OUR LAND, SPEAK UP WE ARE THE MAJORITY… THE LEFT HAS NO BOUNDS , WE MUST STOP THIS MADNESS NOW!!!!!!! TEACHERS THAT COME OUT OF COMMUNIST TRAINING CENTERS DO NOT JUST CHANGE STRIPES AS THEY ENTER POLITICS…….. VETTING THEM IS OUR JOB…. DOMINION MUST BE BURIED FIRST OR VOTING HAS DIED AND SO HAS OUR REPUBLIC… THAT IS WHY I TOTALLY STRESS THAT ANY POLITICIAN THAT DOES NOT CONDEMN AND DEMAND AN AUDIT IS SIMPLY NOT WORTH THEIR SALT…..
THEY KNOW DOMINION STOLE THE ELECTION AND BY FOREIGN INTERFERENCE. IF THIS NATION FALL FURTHER INTO COLLAPSE AND WE THE PEOPLE ARE FORCED INTO A CITIZEN ASSUMPTION OF GOVT DUE TO THIS BETRAYAL. THE OUTCOME FOR THE COMPLICIT THAT HELD OFFICE WILL BE GRIM. STEP UP AND DO SOMETHING NOW TO REDEEM YOURSELVES IF YOU ARE WORTHY……. THIS IS NOT GOING AWAY. WE ARE AT THE TIPPING POINT AND WE ALL KNOW THIS. NOT FOLLOWING THE CONSTITUTION WILL IN HINDS SIGHT INSTEAD OF BEING PURCHASED WILL BE MANY IN GOVTS. ULTIMATE REGRET. NOTHING CAN STOP WHAT IS COMING….. NOTHING..
Be careful about Miss Kelly T.
She and her husband both graduated from Harvard Law.
Neither have worked in the private sector – career bureaucrats.
Kelly was the Chief Data Data for the USPS – when they started the data mining spying on what and when private citizens are having delivered to their houses. After that she worked for James Clapper (yeah, him) in the DNI. Then shw worked in the Dunleavy adminstration. Her husband (google it) is the Commissioner of Alaska Education Early Development.
These are Swamp creatures folks – will she better than Nepotism Lisa? Yeah probably. But, let’s not make her out to a paragon of conservatism. Where’s Joe Miller???
We don’t need two time loser Joe Miller. He’s a good conservative, but Murkowski beat him twice, and could do it again.
THE WATCHMAN MUST. SOUND THE ALARM WHEN HE SEES THE ENEMY COMING OR THE BLOOD OF THE INNOCENT IS ON HIS HANDS…..
I have my doubts there will be an election 2022 or even a United States by then.
Mr. Otness your input is so appreciated for standing up and writing. Howver it is not more effective when you type in all caps, it is well known that its much more difficult to read.
Calling Kelly a “Swamp Creature” is totally without merit. She did not come from a rich family, had a strong enough work ethic to get through a respected college, gained government experience and has lived true to family/Christian values. She’s smart, honest, articulate, and I’ll vote for her every time.