Retiring Alaska State Sen. Gary Stevens (RINO-Kodiak) has attempted to pass the baton to his left-leaning protégé Rep. Louise Stutes. Stevens announced his retirement last week, and apparently gave Stutes advance knowledge that he was doing so. This allowed her to be the first to file for his seat in the 2026 election, giving her a competitive edge.

A retirement announcement this early, along with a quick filing by his chosen replacement, affords the left-of-center Stutes an early advantage, but is also a bit of a dirty trick that voters need to remember.

Most conservative voters recognize Stutes for the viper she is and would be very unhappy if she were to win this state Senate seat. Fortunately, there is a strong chance she can be defeated if the GOP avoids the pitfalls of another Ranked Choice Voting debacle.

The best way to address the Stutes candidacy would be for the GOP to coalesce around one strong conservative Republican candidate to oppose her. That candidate should be from District 6. Figure 1 explains why.

Stevens currently represents Senate District C, which is composed of House Districts 5 and 6. Stutes is currently the Representative for District 5. This is a disadvantage for her if she faces a Republican primary opponent from District 6. This is because District 5 has a significantly smaller voter base than District 6, and typically experiences lower voter turnout. A strong conservative from District 6 will have a built-in advantage due to a larger potential voter base. Add in the negative goodwill that Stutes has acquired by caucusing with the Democrats, and an opponent from District 6 should have a good chance of winning the election.

The fact that there has reportedly been some bad blood between Vance and Stutes, might be interpreted as a heavenly sign to Vance that she needs to get in this race.

The natural candidate to run against Stutes would be Rep. Sarah Vance, who currently represents District 6 in the State House. Vance has a strong conservative record. She has introduced or cosponsored important conservative legislation. Unlike Stutes, Vance refused to caucus with the Democrats. Her one mistake in the last session of the legislature was voting in favor of HB57, the wasteful education spending bill that the House passed, and the governor vetoed. Everyone deserves a mulligan for one mistake, and we shouldn’t hold the HB57 vote against her forever.

If Vance chooses to run for the Senate District C seat, she will stand a very good chance of winning. The fact that there has reportedly been some bad blood between Vance and Stutes, might be interpreted as a heavenly sign to Vance that she needs to get in this race.

Should Vance decline, another individual who might wish to run is Homer resident Jim Anderson. Anderson ran for Mayor of Homer in 2024 but narrowly lost to Rachel Lord in an election with a low turnout of 22.7%. Despite his election loss, some positive signs could pave the way for an Anderson State Senate candidacy. Before the 2024 election, I attended the debate between Anderson and Lord. Anderson outclassed his liberal opponent and came across as a thoughtful, well-spoken conservative individual. Some say that the only reason he lost the race was because his unknown status with voters led to the paltry voter turnout.

She must be defeated, if for no other reason than to send a message to every other feckless RINO legislator considering the same action that their betrayal of the party and the voters has a cost and will not be tolerated.

Anderson was born and raised in Homer but also has extensive experience working in corporate America. He knows how to navigate the executive levels of major corporations, which should be an ideal training ground for dealing with our State Legislature. With proper GOP backing and a well-run candidacy, Anderson would be a formidable opponent for Stutes. Should Sarah Vance decline to run, the GOP committee for District 6 may wish to draft Anderson.

There are probably many other deserving conservative Republicans who may decide to enter the race against Stutes, but if multiple Republicans do so, it leads to the inherent problem of the detested Ranked Choice Voting system. Hopefully, this electoral abomination will be removed via the initiative process in the 2026 election. However, we will be stuck with it in next year’s primary and general elections. Therein lies the risk.

The GOP needs to avoid another RCV debacle, like the one that led to Democrat Mary Peltola’s victory in the 2022 contest for U.S. Representative. In that race, two Republicans chose to take advantage of a feature of RCV that allows the four candidates with the highest primary vote totals to advance to the general election. After a hotly contested primary battle, two Republicans foolishly remained in the race against Peltola, splitting the conservative vote and giving Peltola an undeserved victory. Republicans need to avoid repeating the same mistake in the Senate District C race. Doing so could give the victory to the Democrat candidate.

The way to prevent this is for District 5 and 6 to make a request before giving support or endorsement to any candidate. Committees should obtain a commitment from all Republican primary candidates that they will withdraw from the race and support the eventual primary winner if they do not receive the most votes. This would include Stutes and all other GOP candidates who choose to run against her. If any Republican refuses to make this promise, the GOP should deny them any support or endorsement, and release statements before the primary, opposing that individual’s candidacy.

The GOP wisely convinced Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom to choose this course when she lost the primary election to Begich in the 2024 race for U.S. Representative. Dahlstrom did the right thing by dropping out after she lost the primary, and it resulted in a fair race that resulted in a Republican victory. It has taken Republicans a couple of election cycles to figure out how RCV works, but now that they have, they need to avoid a similar disaster in the 2026 Senate District C race.

Conservatives should be thoughtful and work aggressively to defeat Stutes in her quest for the State Senate. She betrayed her party and every conservative voter in Alaska when she chose to caucus with the Democrats. She must be defeated, if for no other reason than to send a message to every other feckless RINO legislator considering the same action that their betrayal of the party and the voters has a cost and will not be tolerated.

The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

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