I recently wrote an article about all the candidates running for governor, which briefly mentioned that U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski might consider running as a Democrat. Several people disagreed with me, and there were two consistent themes to their opposition to the idea. First, they said Murkowski is a Republican and would never change her party affiliation. Second, they said she would have a tough time winning any election because her polling numbers have dropped precipitously after voting for President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. Let’s examine those arguments in more detail and see what Murkowski’s chances are of winning the Alaska gubernatorial race.
Our senior senator has always been considered a left-leaning moderate Republican and supports issues popular with Democrats, such as abortion. Murkowski has been praised for her independent political views. She opposed President Trump and his policies many times, voting to impeach him after the Jan 6 insurrection in his first term, and more recently has voted against some of President Trump’s cabinet nominees and judicial appointments. She is a left-leaning Republican in an era of MAGA dominance within her party, and her views no longer align with the GOP mainstream. Given that Trump is reshaping the party in his image, Murkowski may have decided that she’s had enough of Washington and is seeking an exit strategy.
Running for governor as a Democrat might be the perfect fit for her. She has always leaned left, and it has been Democrats in large urban cities and rural Alaska who have been her constituency base. She might view winning the governor’s office as a way to stick it to Trump. Plus, she may aspire to run for president someday, and a couple of years in the governor’s mansion might be a good place to demonstrate her leadership ability.
It is pretty clear that if Murkowski wants to be Alaska’s next governor, her chances are very good, that is, unless someone decides to creatively use RCV against her.
She is currently a registered Republican, but switching to the Democratic Party might be a good strategic move for her to win the election. Conservative members of the GOP in Alaska don’t like her very much. Several Alaska GOP Districts have censored her. Additionally, numerous Republicans are running, making it a challenging task to win the Republican vote. Murkowski would not want the embarrassment of losing to a more conservative individual.
RCV is another wildcard that might prevent her from as a Republican. RCV requires the top four vote getters in the primary to advance to the general election. Even if Murkowski runs as a Republican and receives the most votes in the primary, she would still be one of three Republicans on the ballot running against one Democrat in the general election. We saw how that worked out in 2022, when multiple Republicans ran against Mary Peltola and Peltola won the election. The same could happen to Murkowski if she were to run for governor as a Republican.
However, suppose she ran as a Democrat? In that case, she would benefit from RCV. She would likely be the only Democrat on the ballot against three Republicans in the general election. The GOP candidates would likely split the conservative votes, potentially giving the election to Murkowski, just as Mary Peltola won in 2022.
What about the argument that Lisa Murkowski’s latest polling numbers are in the dumps right now? Keep in mind that this is Alaska in summertime. At the best of times, accurate polling is difficult in this state, given its low population numbers and extensive geographic area. Additionally, this is summer when most Alaskans are busy, and you shouldn’t put much faith in the summer polling.
Even if Murkowski has temporarily lost support, she could fix that very quickly. If she were to issue a mea culpa, saying the Trump administration misled her into supporting the BBB, and she now regrets her vote. That would go a long way in restoring her base’s confidence. She has enough liberal bona fides from her long service in the U.S. Senate that she could emphasize her actions and deflect any momentary disagreement the liberal public might have. Furthermore, if she were to say that in protest of Trump, she is switching parties and now plans to fight President Trump from the Alaska Governor’s mansion, you can bet all of her old liberal friends will line up to support her.
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Furthermore, in addition to her liberal constituency in Alaska, her lobbyist friends in D.C. make it easy for her to run. They have generously supported her reelection campaigns in the Senate. In 2022, Murkowski raised $11.2 million to win her last Senate election. By contrast, Gov. Dunleavy raised just $2,75 million to win reelection in 2022. It takes much less money to run for governor in Alaska than for U.S. Senate, and it will be no problem for Murkowski to raise needed funds from outside lobbyists.
Then there are the unaccounted-for registered voters to consider. According to election expert Dr. Douglas Franks, Alaska has 108% of its adults registered to vote.
Think about that. There are more registered Alaska voters than adults who live here. This is, of course, a physical impossibility, but nothing has been done to clean voter rolls of blatantly fraudulent voters. If someone outside the state with deep pockets wanted to impact this election, all they need to do is appeal to the ~45,000 “Alaskans” who, in actuality, live somewhere else, and get them to vote absentee for Murkowski. Keep in mind the last time we elected a new governor was in 2018, and Mike Dunleavy’s margin of victory was 19,892 votes. A well-organized campaign focused on appealing to voters outside the state could find more than enough votes to swing the election in Murkowski’s favor. It wouldn’t matter what Alaskans think; outside mail-in voters could determine our next governor.
It is pretty clear that if Murkowski wants to be Alaska’s next governor, her chances are very good, that is, unless someone decides to creatively use RCV against her. That is the subject of part 2. Stay tuned.
The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.
17 Comments
murkowski is gonna get the boot . all her lies
The evil witch of the North, Lisa Murkowski . She is the worst of the bad. No to the entertainment of the office title for the state. This woman is filth like no other.
Agree 100%
THIS IS THE REPUBLICAN OPERATION IN ACTION!
She’s a dirty politician and will do any thing she needs to do in order to have some type of power. It’s called greed, and we don’t need greed governing our state. Princess Lisa is beyond royalty now, she desires deity.
How right you are! This woman is wicked and spreads it where ever she goes and what she signs and who she uses and plays with. Her last playmate was Biden. Remember that Big Dad Frank put his little girl into the senate seat by disenfranchising the voters in Alaska. We have Rank choice voting due to Lisa. Trust that there is more out there that will come out of the woodwork someday. Every abortion bill in the states and internationally she signs without reservation. She is refused communion at mass by the priests. Wake up Alaska!
Let’s be honest: our “election system” is completely corrupt starting with the funding of candidates (literally a hooker auction), dirty voter rolls, mail-in voting, counting with the machines, RCV (brought to us by the corrupt elections), multiple day counting, centralizing districts, corrupt “parties”, and more. Everyone currently in office has ZERO interest in remedying any of this because they know it is likely the only reason they are there. As to Murkowski, of course she can be governor or queen of the galaxy if they put that on the ballot – it just really depends on whoever is actually running the system, definitely, not the voters.
Agree. The sad reality.
MeMe: try visiting different news sources and hone up your reasoning skills.
God I hope no one is that naive to think she would be a good governor.
Barf
It would be nice if “conservative” commentators would stop using the term “insurrection” around the events of January 6. The level of ignorance is disgusting.
Please, will the Republican Party get smart and get behind 1 candidate. This is why Mr. Begich won. The only way to outsmart ranked choice voting is to have 1 candidate and Republicans support/vote for 1 candidate.
Please, will the Republican Party get smart and get behind 1 candidate. This is why Mr. Begich won. The only way to outsmart ranked choice voting is to have 1 candidate and Republicans support/vote for 1 candidate.
We have a few good republicans but not nearly enough in Alaska. Many are turncoats as we have seen. The GOP is actually a large, maybe the largest, part of the problem. Murkowski has been allowed to run roughshod over Alaskans for how long now? Every now and then the GOP here put on a show of some sort like censor this witch but the republican party here in Alaska is a clown show for the most part. It will take running most of them down the road as well, and once this judicial is cleaned up possibly going after some heads. This holds true for both parties. The times are a changing, takes time but justice can be like a slow moving train. It may take a bit to roll into the station but there is no stopping it. Pray on it.
Lisa would be a good governor because she is a true Republican, not a MAGA. She is able to compromise and see the full story.
Alaska’s Federal Political Representation has been nothing but PROSTITUTES for as long as this State has been one. They suck from the American coffers and enrich themselves through their backroom deals and stock purchases while they pile the debt from their graft on us and our children. It’s become the acceptable behavior of today’s Politicians, and they shamelessly continue their corruption with impunity.