The filing deadline to run in the 2026 statewide election is June 1, so now is an opportune time to see how the race is shaping up to fill the senate seat that will be left open by the retiring Vichy Republican, Gary Stevens.
Stevens has anointed fellow Kodiak legislator Louise Stutes to replace him, but with Stutes’s controversial participation in the Democrat led state house caucus, two additional Republican challengers, and the possibility of a dark horse last-minute entry, this race will be one of the more interesting ones to follow in this year’s election. Fortunately, all of the challengers in this race have an established history of running in statewide elections, giving us a very early glimpse at how this election might end up.
There are three candidates currently in this contest, and all are running as members of the Republican Party. The candidates in alphabetical order are as follows.
Carrie Harris has previously run for this seat back in 2016, filing and running as an Independent, and losing to Senator Gary Steven. Her 2016 filing showed her occupation as a Taxi Driver, and her previous public office as a member of the Homer Cannabis Advisory Commission. She campaigned on encouraging the cannabis industry, legalizing gambling in the state, and adding a 20% tax to all resource extraction industries. She supported more education funding in the state budget, was pro-choice, and believed humans contribute to climate change.
If she still holds those values, Harris sounds like a liberal Democrat trying to sneak into office by pretending to be a Republican. Voters have chosen a Republican to represent Senate District C since 1997. It is unlikely that Harris will have much success with the voters if her positions from 2016 remain unchanged.
Heath Smith has also run for this seat before in 2022, as a Republican, and lost to Senator Gary Stevens. In 2022, Smith favored paying a full PFD and was critical of the Legislature for confiscating part of it since 2016. He opposed broad-based new taxes and favored reducing the size of the state government. Smith also criticized Senator Stevens for his lack of attention to the southern Kenai Peninsula.
If Smith still holds similar positions, he sounds like a bona fide Republican, and his message will resonate with conservative voters, especially those on the Kenai.
Louise Stutes is the current representative for Alaska House District 5, serving Kodiak, Seward, and Cordova, and has been anointed by Senator Stevens as his heir. Stutes has a long track record of legislative accomplishment, both good and bad. Her most notable decision was her defection from the Republican majority in 2023 to form a governing caucus with Democrats in the Alaska House. She has also been a proponent of using the PFD to fund state government. Her race for Senator will succeed or fail depending on the voter response to these actions.
Race Status
All of these candidates have an election record that allows a current snapshot to be made for the 2026 election. Based on the vote percentages they received the last time they ran for election, this is how the vote would be if held today.
Louise Stutes would lead the election for Senator for District C if voters today vote as they did in previous elections. Please note that this is not a prediction for the 2026 election results. Voters will form their own opinions on who to support based on current election issues and past legislative accomplishments. However, while Louise Stutes would lead an election held today, she would not win outright. Since she wouldn’t get 50% + 1 vote, the election would require a ranked choice voting automatic run-off, and how the votes from Carrie Harris would be distributed would determine the election winner.
Heath Smith’s best chances of winning are to bring attention to Louise Stute’s participation in the liberal Democratic caucus in the House, and how she would likely do that again in the Senate. Stutes has taken unpopular stands that can be used against her, such as her support for using the PFD to fund state government. Additionally, Stutes is only leading this race because of her high vote percentage in House District 5. Smith will take the majority of the votes in House District 6. If Smith could siphon away Stutes’s votes in Kodiak, Seward, and Cordova, just a slight change in how those communities vote would swing the election his way.
This election snapshot is based on the three candidates who are currently registered to run in the 2026 District C election. It would change if there were a last-minute entry into this race before the filing deadline, such as a decision by current District 6 Representative Sarah Vance to run for Senate, or a filing by a liberal Democrat trying to use the Mary Peltola strategy of running against multiple Republicans as the lone Democrat.
More to come as we get closer to the primary election.
The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.
