By AlaskaWatchman.com

At a recent joint hearing of the House Judiciary and State Affairs committees, Chair Andrew Gray argued that ranked-choice voting did not create the Decoy Daniel situation. He claims that same-name candidates existed before RCV, so the real issue is ballot access, and anyone blaming RCV is confusing the ballot with the reform.

Rep. Andrew Gray

Under Alaska’s old, closed primary, a same-name candidate could file against a sitting senator. But the system would decide his fate before November. He had two choices. Beat the incumbent in the Republican primary, which almost never happens against a two-term senator with the party behind him. Or lose and go home. The party was the filter. Democrats could not vote on the Republican ballot. One Republican name went to the general election.

Now, the top-four open primary changes that. The challenger no longer needs to beat the incumbent. He only needs to finish in the top four of a nonpartisan field. Once he clears that bar, he sits on the November ballot next to the real senator and creates the confusion the strategy is designed to create.

Chair Gray can call this a ballot access issue. But ballot access under a closed primary and ballot access under a top-four jungle are two different things. The difference comes from the reform he defends.

Under the old, closed primary, party ballots were separate. Republicans got a Republican primary ballot. Democrats got a Democratic primary ballot. A same-name Republican challenger faced only Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Democratic voters had no way to touch that race.

That firewall made the decoy strategy pointless. A Democratic operative trying to hurt a Republican incumbent would have needed Republican voters to cast the wrong vote using only Republican turnout. That’s not a strategy. In decades of closed primaries, Alaska never saw a serious decoy candidate for a major statewide office. The structure blocked it.

The top-four open primary removes that firewall. Every Alaska voter gets the same ballot. Democratic turnout, Democratic money, and Democratic operatives can now help a Republican-labeled decoy advance. That’s what is happening here. Metadata reviewed by Fox News shows the launch announcement for Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg was written by a Democratic consultant tied to Mary Peltola’s campaigns. That same consultant has said she wants Peltola to unseat the incumbent. Under the old system, her help would have been worthless. Under the current system, her help is the point.

The chair’s argument requires you to pretend the primary structure did not change in 2020.

It did.

Some say voters can just rank both Sullivans in the general election this November and it will sort itself out. That treats voters like they live in a lab. A voter who thinks he is ranking the incumbent first but is actually ranking the retired teacher from Petersburg has already given his first-choice vote to the wrong man. If Decoy Daniel advances on those confused votes, the incumbent may be the one eliminated. Second-choice rankings do not save you from that. Confusion and exhausted ballots get worse under RCV, not better.

Confusion is a feature of this scheme, not a bug. Decoy Daniel knows he cannot win. That is not a failure of his campaign. That is the point. He is on the ballot to create confusion, and RCV makes the effort worthwhile even if he loses, because he only needs to pull enough first-choice votes to matter.

Chair Gray raised legitimate concerns about how the Division of Elections handled this. He is not wrong that Director Beecher reached too far. The courts said she did. That is a fair debate, and I have no interest in defending an overreach the courts have already reversed. But the problem the Division was trying to solve is not a problem the old system produced. It is the direct consequence of the new system, which Alaskans have struggled under for three election cycles. Under the old system, no elections director ever had to judge a candidate’s intent. The party primary and the separate ballots handled it. That structure is gone, and Beecher was left holding a bag RCV placed in her hands.

In 2022, we got the 48-candidate special primary for Don Young’s seat. In 2024, the winner was decided by second- and third-choice votes after the first-choice leader was eliminated. In 2026, we have Decoy Daniel and a governor’s race with 17 candidates on the same nonpartisan ballot.

Every cycle since RCV took effect has produced a national embarrassment, the likes of which the old system never produced. At some point, the pattern is the argument. The chair cannot point to a single election under the previous system that looked like the three we’ve now had under RCV. The burden currently sits with the defenders.

None of this would be happening under Alaska’s former election system, which is, once again, on the ballot this November.

Chair Gray is free to keep arguing the reform he defends has nothing to do with the mess it produced. Alaskans have already watched three cycles of it. In November, they will vote on Ballot Measure 2, which seeks to return to the former system, end RCV and restore party primaries.

The views expressed here are those of the author.

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OPINION: Alaska’s ranked-choice vote created Decoy Daniel. Full stop.

Rep. Kevin McCabe
Rep. Kevin McCabe is a 40-plus-year Alaskan who is the House representative for District 30. He is retired U.S. Coast Guard and a retired airline pilot.


10 Comments

  • Evan S Singh says:

    McCabe: I think you’re laying down some pretext to try to explain the HUGE loss Republicans are going to endure in November.

    • Alaskanyuk says:

      Evan S Singh. Can you be truly honest and answer these questions? Can you explain how RCV is better than just the normal way of voting we used to vote? Do you believe that Dan J. Sullivan ran believing he could win? Let’s see how well you can dance around these questions. Let’s see if you are a human being.

      • Kevin says:

        RCV is better in that it provides the most tolerable official for the most people, and allows for a more balanced electorate. It allows me to vote for a 3rd party (personally not pleased with any of the R or D candidates) without throwing my vote away. Under this system my vote trickles down to whomever I find least objectionable. RCV isn’t hard to do, or to understand, and Alaskans have voted for it multiple times. As for Dan J. Sullivan The only person who can speak to his motivations is him, and he’s done so in multiple interviews. He’s legally eligible to and interested enough to run, so he’s running. May or nay not win, that’s up to voters to decide as it should be, if you’re afraid voters can’t read or aren’t smart enough to determine the difference between them then there’s other problems to contend with….

  • Ruth & Jon Ewig says:

    Andrew Gray is a Democrat and as we have observed, Democrats and RINOS have been found to be cheaters and liars in various elections, locally and nationally.. This legislator is no exception and in addition Andrew Gray along with the rest of the Democrats and some RiNOS stole our Permanent Fund Dividend for two cycles without remorse. Governor Hammond warned us of this possibility if the PFD did not get codified (put into the Constitution). Andrew Gray is one of several liars and cheaters in our legislature. Should we trust his observations? Hardly. liars and cheaters can typically rationalize their behavior and justify themselves to be right, but he is wrong!.

  • Proud Alaskan says:

    Wake up Alaskans, Vote yes on prop #2 to get rid of RCV.

  • Greg says:

    YES on 2…..get rid of RCV….it was created by leftists to empower leftists!….YES on prop 2…. Yes on 2 YES on 2 YES on 2 YES on 2 YES on 2
    P.S. YES on 2

  • Greg says:

    And NO on Evan…!

  • Steven H says:

    yes on 2 remove RCV

  • Brian Shank says:

    The title is misleading and mostly contradicts the actual article. The article correctly points out that it’s the top-4 system that permits this fake Republican candidate strategy. This problem has nothing to do with use of RCV (any other voting method would make no difference), but is caused by the candidate self-affiliation rule. Parties need to have control over which candidate uses the party name. This is easy to fix, and doesn’t require abolishing the whole top-4 system.

  • Dave Maxwell says:

    RCV brought to you by Mike porcarro and his buddy your “conservative “ governor Mike Dunleavy! Two frauds giving you a fraud policy! Don’t be fooled, maccabe is trying his hardest to catch up to them and is now known as a republiconman!
    This state doesn’t have an actual Conservative Party!