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    Anchorage has reached herd immunity – 70% vaccination rate unnecessary

    By AlaskaWatchman.com

    Anchorage’s acting mayor has extended her emergency COVID order until residents of the municipality have reached the minimum of 70% vaccinated. The inference is that “herd immunity” will be reached only through vaccinations. This is not correct and does not meet the public health concept and metrics of “herd immunity.”

    Health officials around the world are racing to vaccinate enough people to stop the spread of COVID-19. The goal is to reach “herd immunity,” which is when enough people have immunity, either from vaccination and/or a past COVID-19 infection that produces natural immunity to the COVID-19 virus. This, in turn, stops the uncontrolled spread of the virus.

    Herd immunity doesn’t make any one person immune, and outbreaks can still flare up. Rather, it means a virus is no longer easily jumping from person to person, which helps protect those who are still vulnerable from catching it.

    Many experts including Dr. Walter Orenstein, infectious disease expert at Emory University, say this virus’ herd immunity threshold should begin at around 60% and start reducing virus spread, hospitalizations and deaths at 70%, but don’t wait for any big declaration that we’ve reached that milestone. It is the reduction in deaths and use of inpatient healthcare systems that will confirm it, and this may vary by city or region. 

    Municipality of Anchorage and State of Alaska cases of COVID-19 virus transmission continue to decline since its peak in December 2020. The small increase in the last seven days is primarily in the 20-39 age group, not in the 60-plus group that produces the majority COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU occupancy, ventilator usage and deaths now reported by the Alaska Department of Health data hub.

    As of April 12, 2021, 37.5% of Anchorage’s population (not including American Indian/Alaska Native vaccines, which come from a different provider – Indian Health Service) has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Another 39.9% population has been infected and now has immunity to the virus. This is based on the FundStrat’s method of calculation for herd immunity (confirmed COVID-19 cases and total infections per 1mm residents). Therefore more than 77% of Anchorage’s population now has immunity. That meets the percentage needed to end the acting mayor’s emergency order. 

    Proof that we’re near or beyond herd immunity threshold is the disruption in the chain of transmission. This is how to determine whether to relax restrictions – watching infection and hospitalization tends as vaccinations are rolled out. COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalization have all dropped since Jan 8, 2021.

    COVID-19 Impatient Beds, ICU Beds Occupied and Ventilators in use by Patients As of Apr. 12, 2021:

    • Inpatient Bed Occupied by COVID-19 Patients:     4.2%  of Total Impatient Beds
    • ICU Bed Occupied by COVID-19 Patients :          16.2%  of Total ICU Beds
    • Ventilators in use for COVID-19 Patients:               3.9% of Ventilators used 

    The data box above (Herd Immunity Update Report State of Alaska As of Mar 31, 2021) details that 73% of Alaska’s statewide population has been infected with the virus and has immunity or received the COVID-19 vaccine.

    This article is co-authored by the following writers:

    David Morgan

    • Healthcare Economist (Team Leader)
    • Fellow, Healthcare Financial Managers Association (HFMA)
    • American Society of Health Economists (ASHE.com)  

    Ric Davidge, MPA

    • Founder/Chairman of Alaska Roundtable

    Click here to support the Alaska Watchman.

    Alaska Roundtable
    Alaska Roundtable
    The Alaska Roundtable is a non-partisan, conservative think tank that includes some of the best most experienced political and policy minds in Alaska. For more information, go to alaskaroundtable.com.

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    25 Comments

      • Yeah, Good idea. If she took everyones stab maybe she’d loose enough weight and blow away! Good riddens…..

    1. Your calculation only makes sense if there is no overlap between the people who were infected and the people who received the vaccine. Many of the 37.4% who have received the vaccine are also among the 39.9% who were infected with the virus.

      • True, but asymptomatic case are estimated between 5% and 20% depending on the medical literature you read. Dr. Hennessey, while supporting the second lockdown stated the figure was 10%. He never shared the source of that data.

        • There is no such thing as ASYMPTOMATIC! thats the lie that medical HACKS made up that you all bought into. It is called a viral load. You either have a viral load or you don’t. It’s that simple

          • I respectively suggest that you look at the data about asymptomatic infections. I have a friend whose whose whole family was infected (4 people), 3 of which got pretty sick but were able to ride it out at home, and one that WAS asymptomatic so got a test and was positive. She NEVER had any symptoms. And this was true for 2 other friends. All of them are over 65 with health problems. This has been proven true by CDC and other sources.

            • Haha. You still believe anything the CDC says. Haha. They are PAID to lie to you. I suggest that you do some REAL research on your own without that little computer that’s in your hand and go find some medical books. There is no such thing as ASYMPTOMATIC. again it’s called a VIRAL LOAD and you can not affect others without it. So when people carried the HIV virus what do you think that was? That was called DORMANT. Go pick up a websters dictionary and stop watching so much tv

        • Another inconvenient fact lies within CDC reports that many who had received the vac. were infected one month, or more, after having been vaccinated… It has been said many times before.. It’s not about controlling, or preventing the virus, but about establishing a government experiment on controlling the masses.. If they can force you to bend the knee on this, then, next time.. What will the excuse be ? I do not even suggest that any virus is harmless, and of no health concern, but the common flue hasn’t caused such a response from government, and well paid Fauci, and the common flu has killed more per year than this new version of “flu” has.. It is another flu.,

          • I just heard that the state of Oregon has a bill to make masking PERMANANT. We have to get out the word, to everyone, to vote for Dave Bronson. He said he will lift all of the fascist control we have been under for over a YEAR! Otherwise, it will be our fault for letting this (and I want to use cuss words but won’t ;-)) stuff happen,
            It is time for us to show Civil Disobedience by not wearing masks, unless we are forced to in order to get into a medical facility or Costco, etc. Go into Carrs or Freddies without a mask, I have seen more and more people doing so and have started doing it myself.

    2. Just because one doesn’t have an official positive test doesn’t mean that person never had the virus. I’m pretty sure I had it in February before anyone really knew what was going on. In fact a lot of people were sick with something that a lot of people recovered from right around then. I’m guessing the barn door was shut after the horses escaped and we should never have closed like we did…

      • Then there is the fact that some tested positive, and upon a re-test, they tested negative.. So, were the infected, or was the test un-reliable ?

        • A lot of it had to do with how many cycles they were using during testing. The original person who created the testing said they should never put the test above 17 cycles. But everybody put it at 40 cycles which created all the false positives. That’s why people tested positive and had absolutely no symptoms at all, because they were not infected. They were all false positives. The information is out there you just have to look at it. It was proven by a doctor down in Tanzania who tested a pawpaw, which is a fruit, and a goat. Both came back positive for the virus. That right there is to tell you how accurate the test is. And now people getting the vaccination are actually coming down with Covid where is they never would have before.

    3. I’ve been trying to explain herd to the Assembly for at least two months and other facts for over 5 months. They don’t want to hear it. When asked what the goal was by Assemblyman Weddleton, their main advisor Janets Johnston PhD replied she didn’t know and was waiting for guidance from the CDC. Assemblyman Constant steadfastly parrots a figure of less than 10 cases per 100,000. It’s a metric From Harvard and the Brown School of Public Health. The metric was created in July 2020 before any advanced therapeutics or vaccines existed. As of yesterday only 7 out of 55 States and US territories were below 10/100,000. To show how ludicrous this metric is the “green zone” is 1 case per 100,000. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ The number of States below the 10/100,000 vary regularly with some moving below and then back above the threshold.

      During his verbal Bludgeoning of Assembly Woman Allard Assembly Chair Rivera voiced that Texas cases were increasing because of a lack of mask mandate. Texas now 12.9/100,000 – Alaska now 23.7 When I pointed this out to him via email I was told my emails were too long. That one was two paragraphs. Previous emails to the entire assembly were comprehensive supplying peer reviewed medical journal articles, thus requiring some length. A few Assembly members were appreciative of the data. Some were upset their narrative was questioned. I watched a local chiropractor, who supplied similar peer reviewed information, be berated at an Assembly meeting simply for being a Chiropractor. This from a politician.

    4. Another metric often ignored by the Assembly and Acting Mayor and their advisors is the fact 82% of those who died with a COVID link in Alaska were over 65 years of age. At present in Anchorage the 65+ age group is vaccinated at 79.4% single dose and 74% two doses. Those vaccinations have been available since February and literally can be available on a walk in basis now.

    5. More faults death counts too,
      He got Hit by a bus,he died, wait no he died from covid, more lies on the numbers
      No mask wearing for me are the scary shot
      Get a life everyone. Who’s in control of your life you are the government.

    6. Why is the Biden administration allowing 150,000 illegal aliens across the border, paying them $1100 and either bussing or flying them to red states WITHOUT covid tests? Why are congressmen not wearing masks or social distancing during breaks (watch c-span)? Why is there not 6ft separation at White House press conferences? Why does Fauci take his mask of immediately after he thinks the cameras are off (he was caught doing this by a camera that was not off)? We are being played people! Wake up and fight this. And I say this as a 66 year old with some major health problems. I’ve not social dististaned (sorry for the spelling) with friends this entire time, and been fine. Not saying this virus is serious for some who have had it.

    7. OMG, You can’t add 39.9% to 37.5% and get over 70%! Some people who had Covid-19 have been vaccinated. There is overlap. How do you account for this? And what citation supports the calculation of estimated infected? Who did this math?

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