Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan leads Democratic challenger Mary Peltola by a slim 47%-45% margin among likely voters in Alaska, according to a new poll from New York Times/Siena College that was released Tuesday.
The survey of 593 likely voters, conducted June 15-29, shows the race remains highly competitive as Alaska prepares for the November 2026 midterm elections. When respondents were first asked without leaners, the candidates were tied at 44% each, with Sullivan gaining ground after follow-up questions that pushed undecided voters toward a choice.
In seeking a third term, Sullivan’s main opponent is Peltola – the former Congresswoman who was ousted by Rep. Nick Begich in 2024.
The new poll highlights Sullivan’s edge among Republican-leaning independents and in certain regions, while Peltola maintains strong support among Democrats.
In the concurrent U.S. House race, Republican Nick Begich has a more comfortable lead over Democrat Matt Schultz – 51%-39% among likely voters.
When asked about broader issues facing the nation, only 40% of likely voters say the U.S. is on the right track, while 48% say it is headed in the wrong direction. President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 47% (29% strongly approve), with 49% disapproving.
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The top three issues that voters said they were concerned about were the economy (16%), character of the candidate (8%) and control of Congress (7%).
Other top issues were inflation and the cost of living, the state of democracy/corruption, immigration, opposition to Trump and Republicans, foreign policy/foreign affairs, equality, abortion, election integrity and opposition to Democrats.
Voter enthusiasm is mixed, with 49% of respondents saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November. As expected, party identification among likely Alaska voters leans Republican after including independents who lean toward one party: 51% Republican-leaning versus 40% Democratic-leaning.
Among Sullivan supporters, the top reasons for backing him included positive views of his policies (34%) and character/competence (15%). Peltola supporters were less enthusiastic about her policies (23%) and more focused on her character/competence (30%).
The poll comes amid a national battle for Senate control, with Republicans defending several seats. In Alaska, the contest is viewed as a potential flip opportunity for Democrats, especially with the state’s controversial ranked-choice voting system, which critics say is confusing and open to manipulation.
Margins of error for the poll are approximately ±4.5 percentage points.
