Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan leads Democratic challenger Mary Peltola by a slim 47%-45% margin among likely voters in Alaska, according to a new poll from New York Times/Siena College that was released Tuesday.
The survey of 593 likely voters, conducted June 15-29, shows the race remains highly competitive as Alaska prepares for the November 2026 midterm elections. When respondents were first asked without leaners, the candidates were tied at 44% each, with Sullivan gaining ground after follow-up questions that pushed undecided voters toward a choice.
In seeking a third term, Sullivan’s main opponent is Peltola – the former Congresswoman who was ousted by Rep. Nick Begich in 2024.
The new poll highlights Sullivan’s edge among Republican-leaning independents and in certain regions, while Peltola maintains strong support among Democrats.
In the concurrent U.S. House race, Republican Nick Begich has a more comfortable lead over Democrat Matt Schultz – 51%-39% among likely voters.
When asked about broader issues facing the nation, only 40% of likely voters say the U.S. is on the right track, while 48% say it is headed in the wrong direction. President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 47% (29% strongly approve), with 49% disapproving.
ALASKA WATCHMAN DIRECT TO YOUR INBOX
The top three issues that voters said they were concerned about were the economy (16%), character of the candidate (8%) and control of Congress (7%).
Other top issues were inflation and the cost of living, the state of democracy/corruption, immigration, opposition to Trump and Republicans, foreign policy/foreign affairs, equality, abortion, election integrity and opposition to Democrats.
Voter enthusiasm is mixed, with 49% of respondents saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November. As expected, party identification among likely Alaska voters leans Republican after including independents who lean toward one party: 51% Republican-leaning versus 40% Democratic-leaning.
Among Sullivan supporters, the top reasons for backing him included positive views of his policies (34%) and character/competence (15%). Peltola supporters were less enthusiastic about her policies (23%) and more focused on her character/competence (30%).
The poll comes amid a national battle for Senate control, with Republicans defending several seats. In Alaska, the contest is viewed as a potential flip opportunity for Democrats, especially with the state’s controversial ranked-choice voting system, which critics say is confusing and open to manipulation.
Margins of error for the poll are approximately ±4.5 percentage points.
8 Comments
Sure, because we know we can trust the NY Times for honest polling. Please.
Do you think there’s ANY honest polling, ANYWHERE?
If you, Don’t Get Out and Vote. You have no say, in complaining about the election results. So shut your pie hole.
All Alaskans need to get out the vote, to rid this RCV system. So we can have somewhat fair elections again.
I voted wrong on this issue the first time, because of the way it was worded on the ballot. I’m still trying to kick my own butt.
Peltola should be running as a Democratic Socialist, her radio ads indicate she wants all of us to subside the native villages due to the high cost of living.
She should have learned from her years of experience in the bush, it’s expensive to live in the villages and it’s not the tax payer’s fault or responsibility to make it easier on her. With her attitude that someone owes her and her neighbor an easier life indicates she’s unfit to represent the hard working people of Alaska.
WHICH Sullivan are we talking about?
Mr.Hart, it’s whichever Sullivan you want it to be.
Amazing! She accomplished nothing while a representative except to rubber stamp the Biden agenda. She’s running on nothing in this race since she can not make life any cheaper in the bush and since people can’t coexist with fish. Also, she touts family, but what about the unborn? All she has going for her is Native/woman.