Preliminary results from Alaska’s Aug. 18 primary indicate that Republicans have their work cut out in the lead-up to the Nov. 3 general election.

In the primary, only the top four vote-getters in each race advance to the next round. Initial results will likely change as more votes come in over the next 10 days, and a final tally won’t occur until Aug. 28, with results being certified Aug. 31.

If initial election night returns hold, however, it appears that the unheralded “Decoy Dan” (aka – Daniel Sullivan Jr.) may be one of the top-four vote getters in the U.S. Senate race, meaning he will be able to siphon off November votes from the sitting U.S. Senator who has the same first and last name, thereby helping Democrat Mary Peltola.

Initial returns show Mary Peltola leading the primary pack, followed closely by Sen. Sullivan. Far behind sit third-place “Decoy Dan” and Republican Gerald Heikes. If these candidates keep their current positions, they will all advance to the ranked-choice general election.

The fact that Peltola has roughly 47.2% of the initial votes, despite competing against 16 other candidates, does not bode well for Sen. Sullivan, who currently sits at 43.9%. He will need to increase GOP turnout in November.

The U.S. House race could also be close this fall. Incumbent Republican Congressman Nick Begich had 46.6% of the vote in election night returns, but liberal challenger Bill Hill had nearly 31%. Once the 15-candidate field is narrowed to four for the general election, Hill will likely pick up the 8% of votes that were cast for the now-withdrawn liberal Democrat Matt Schultz. Plus, there are thousands of votes that went to Democrats that will be eliminated after the primary. Those votes will likely go to Hill in November. This indicates that Begich could be in a very tight race.

In the 17-candidate gubernatorial race, Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (21.7%) and Tom Begich (19.7%) are the clear first and second place finishers according to early returns. Republicans Bernadette Wilson (10.7%) and Dave Bronson (8.5%) follow them. Given that so many prominent Republicans ran in this race, many of those voters will likely switch to Wilson and Bronson in November. However, the fact that Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich are one and two in the early primary returns points to a potentially tough race in the general.

The lone ballot measure to be decided in the primary appears to be easily passing. Prop. 1 is a leftist-backed initiative that aims to restrict how much money Alaskans can donate to political candidates, while giving outside political groups unlimited freedom to pour millions of dollars into candidates’ campaigns. Early returns show Prop. 1 winning comfortably, which may mean that many conservatives did not fully understand what the ballot measure actually accomplished.

Of the 40 Alaska State House races and 10 State Senate races, only five have more than four candidates running, which means the vast majority of contests will see all primary candidates automatically advance to the general election.

The five races where candidates will be whittled down include Eagle River House District 23, where incumbent Republican Jamie Allard is leading the field with just under 41% of the vote. She is followed by Democrat Jim Arlington with 30.9% and Republicans Ruby Jones and Nick Capozzi. Democrat Lee Hammermeister is likely eliminated with less than 6% of the early vote count.

House District 29 (Mat-Su and Valdez) had six candidates. Leading the field is Republican Steve Menard with 40.5% of the early vote count. He is followed by incumbent Republican Garret Nelson (23.6%) and Democrat Kimberly Slone (21.5%). Non-affiliated Jessica Kusner-Kalarchik was in fourth place with 7.6%, while Libertarian Candice Frisby and Undeclared Amber Hanson look to be eliminated unless they can move up as more votes are counted in the coming days.

House District 30 (western Mat-Su) has five candidates, led by incumbent Republican Kevin McCabe with just over 33% of the vote. He is followed by Democrat Sandra Loomis (27.1%) and Doug Massie (20.8%). Doyle Holmes (13.9%) rounds out the top four, which would leave Mike Alexander on the outs, unless he can move up.

House District 37 (Southwest Alaska) has seven candidates, including undeclared Peter Angasan and Kimberly Johnson, Democrats Dennis Robinson and Evelynn Trefon, Republican Brenda Wilson, and nonpartisans Mark Smith and Cade Woods. Early returns only showed only 1.1% of the vote counted on election night, which is too small to provide meaningful results at this point.

The final race in which candidates stand to be eliminated is Senate District S (Southwest Alaska) with five candidates competing for the open seat left by retiring Democrat Sen. Lyman Hoffman. Early returns show non-affiliated Rick Robb leading with 30.3% of the early returns. He’s followed by left-wing Bryce Edgmon (24.8%), and Republican Darren Deacon (21.7%). Democrat Wassilie Guy is fourth and undeclared Wayne A. Morgan sits in fifth place.

To view the latest early returns for every race, click here.

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