Preliminary results from Alaska’s Aug. 18 primary indicate that Republicans have some heavy lifting to do before the Nov. 3 general election.

In the primary, only the top four vote-getters in each race advance to the next round. Initial results will likely change as more votes come in over the next 10 days, and a final tally won’t occur until Aug. 28, with results being certified Aug. 31.

As of this reporting, 93.8% of statewide precincts had reported, for a total preliminary voter turnout of 22%. Some contests had all precincts reporting, while others had far less.

If initial election night returns hold, however, it appears that the unheralded “Decoy Dan” (aka – Daniel Sullivan Jr.) may be one of the top-four vote getters in the U.S. Senate race, meaning he will be able to siphon off November votes from the sitting U.S. Senator who has the same first and last name, thereby helping Democrat Mary Peltola.

Initial returns show Mary Peltola leading the primary pack, followed closely by Sen. Sullivan. Far behind sit third-place “Decoy Dan” and Republican Gerald Heikes. If these candidates keep their current positions, they will all advance to the ranked-choice general election.

The fact that Peltola has roughly 48% of the initial votes, despite competing against 16 other candidates, does not bode well for Sen. Sullivan, who currently sits at 42.8%. He will need to increase GOP turnout in November if he wants to keep his U.S. Senate seat.

The U.S. House race could also be close this fall. Incumbent Republican Congressman Nick Begich had 46.1% of the vote in election night returns, but liberal challenger Bill Hill had 30.9%. Once the 15-candidate field is narrowed to four for the general election, Hill will likely pick up the 8% of votes that were cast for the now-withdrawn liberal Democrat Matt Schultz. Plus, there are thousands of votes that went to Democrats that will be eliminated after the primary. Those votes will likely go to Hill in November. This indicates that Begich could be in a very tight race.

In the 17-candidate gubernatorial race, Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (21.6%) and Tom Begich (20%) are the clear first and second place finishers according to early returns. Republicans Bernadette Wilson (10.4%) and Dave Bronson (8.4%) follow them. Given that so many prominent Republicans ran in this race, many of those voters will likely switch to Wilson or Bronson in November. However, the fact that Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich are one and two in the early primary returns points to a potentially tough race in the general.

The lone ballot measure to be decided in the primary appears to be easily passing with 71.4% of the early vote count. Prop. 1 is a leftist-backed initiative that aims to restrict how much money Alaskans can donate to political candidates, while giving outside political groups unlimited freedom to pour millions of dollars into candidates’ campaigns. Early returns show Prop. 1 winning comfortably, which may mean that many conservatives did not fully understand what the ballot measure actually accomplished.

Of the 40 Alaska State House races and 10 State Senate races, only five have more than four candidates running, which means the vast majority of contests will see all primary candidates automatically advance to the general election.

The five races where candidates will be whittled down include Eagle River House District 23 where incumbent Republican Jamie Allard leads the field with 40.7% of the vote. She is followed by Democrat Jim Arlington with 31.1% and Republicans Ruby Jones and Nick Capozzi. Democrat Lee Hammermeister will be eliminated.

House District 29 (Mat-Su and Valdez) had six candidates. Republican Steve Menard leads with 40.5% of the early vote count. He is followed by incumbent Republican Garret Nelson (23.6%) and Democrat Kimberly Slone (21.5%). Non-affiliated Jessica Kusner-Kalarchik was in fourth place with 7.6%, while Libertarian Candice Frisby and Undeclared Amber Hanson look to be eliminated unless they can move up as more votes are counted in the coming days.

House District 30 (western Mat-Su) has five candidates. Republican Kevin McCabe leads with 33.2% of the vote. He is followed by Democrat Sandra Loomis (27.1%) and Doug Massie (20.8%). Doyle Holmes (13.9%) rounds out the top four, which leaves Mike Alexander on the outs.

House District 37 (Southwest Alaska), with just 71.4% of precincts reporting, has seven candidates. Republican Brenda Wilson leads the early vote count with 22.2%, followed by non-affiliated Mark Smith (18.3%), Democrat Evelynn Trefon (17.4%) and Democrat Dennis Robinson (15.9%).

The final race in which candidates stand to be eliminated is Senate District S (Southwest Alaska) with 71.1% of precincts reporting. Of the five candidates competing for this open seat left by retiring Democrat Sen. Lyman Hoffman, early returns show left-wing Bryce Edgmon leading with 36.6% of the vote, followed by Republican Morgan Deacon (23.9%), Democrat Wassilie Guy (18.3%) and non-affiliated Rick Robb (13.1%). Undeclared Wayne A. Morgan sits in fifth place.

To view the latest early returns for every race, click here.

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