Louise Stutes and Heath Smith are the two leading candidates to replace retiring Senator Gary Stevens in the legislature representing Senate District C. A normal feature in most political campaigns is a debate between candidates where they share their message with the voters, but for some reason Stutes is avoiding a debate with Mr. Smith in Kodiak. For those wondering if she is afraid to debate Mr. Smith, they are correct. This election contest is very close, and Stutes has a reason not to debate in her home community.
Her supporters will point out that Ms. Stutes isn’t afraid of a debate, as she has agreed to participate in one in Homer scheduled for October 6th. However, this is deceptive. Stutes is steadfastly refusing to participate in a debate in Kodiak, despite Mr. Smith making himself available on any date of Stutes’ choosing.
Stutes is a very controversial politician, with many foibles, but she is an astute politician who is aware of the risks of a Kodiak debate, and an analysis of the data shows us why.
While Louise Stutes led this year’s primary election over Heath Smith by 12%, that margin of victory is concerning for Stutes. It was much smaller than in previous years. In 2022, the incumbent Senator Gary Stevens led the primary by 36%. Louise Stutes, by comparison, did much worse.
When you combine the Stutes’ lower results with the typical voter behavior in Alaskan elections, the real problem becomes apparent. A notable feature of elections in Alaska is that conservative voters don’t vote in the primary but do show up for the general election. Every statewide election in Alaska and most districts show this repeatable behavior.
For example, Table 1 shows the 2022 elections for Senate District C and House District 5, where Louise Stutes last ran for the legislature. In both of those races, Gary Stevens and Louise Stutes lost 5% of their election lead between the primary and general elections, while their more conservative opponents gained by the same amount. Those changes can be seen highlighted in red and green.
If the pattern holds for this year, the race for Senate District C is a dead heat. The predicted result for this year’s general election is highlighted in yellow. It is based on this year’s primary election and the participation rate for conservative voters in previous general elections. Both Louise Stutes and Heath Smith are predicted to receive vote totals in the low 40% range, which will require an automatic RCV runoff to determine the winner.
A little deeper dive into this year’s primary election results shows why Stutes refuses to participate in a Kodiak debate. Senate District C is composed of House Districts 5 and 6. Stutes took 69.4% of the votes in District 5. Stutes won the primary only because of her large support in District 5, and she must have that same margin of victory to win in November. Since the largest city in District 5 is Kodiak, it is no wonder she refuses to debate there. She has nothing to gain by a debate in those communities. She can only lose voters.
The opposite is true for District 6, where Stutes trailed by 12%. Homer is the largest community in District 6, and if Stutes can appeal to voters there, it will help her campaign. This is why she has campaigned in Homer and is willing to participate in a candidate debate there.
The reality is that Louise Stutes is attempting to hide from the voters in District 5 that she is a liberal whose policies align with the Democratic Party. She is not a conservative Republican but pretends to be one to win elections. To perpetrate this fraud, she is preventing District 5 voters from having access to her more conservative opponent. Kodiak residents in particular are being intentionally kept in the dark because Stutes assumes she already has their votes. They might find it objectionable to be treated like cattle, but that is the strategy Stutes is using to win the election. District 5 voters will need to decide if they want to be represented by a phony Chicken Little, or a true conservative like Heath Smith.
The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.
