According to a newly released poll by Alaska Survey Research, hard-left Democrat Tom Begich holds a slight advantage in the race to become Alaska’s next governor.

While conservatives might take the latest survey by pollster Ivan Moore with a grain of salt, considering he is often characterized as left-of-center, the new poll could be cause for concern for Republicans. Conducted April 16-19, with between 1,612 and 1,923 likely voters, the poll’s margin of error is +/-2.5%.

The survey asked voters the following question regarding the 18 candidates running for governor: “If the election was held today, which of the following likely candidates do you think you would vote for?”

RESULTS

— Tom Begich (D) 19.0%

— Bernadette Wilson (R) 13.5%

— Dave Bronson (R) 9.8%

— Click Bishop (R) 9.0%

The main change this month has Click Bishop entering the top four in place of Democrat Matt Claman.

When the rank-choice voting system is factored in, the results begin to change.

The survey asked respondents to “Rank the following candidates for Alaska Governor in the numerical order of your preference.”

Round 1:

— Tom Begich (D) 41.0%

— Bernadette Wilson (R) 21.8%

— Click Bishop (R) 18.7%

— Dave Bronson (R) 18.6%

Under ranked-choice voting, since Bronson took fourth, he would be removed and all the second-choice candidates under his name would be redistributed as first-place votes for the top three candidates.

After this redistribution, the results would look like this in round 2:

— Tom Begich (D) 43.9%

— Bernadette Wilson (R) 30.9%

— Click Bishop (R) 25.2%

According to the poll, Bronson’s second-choice votes would then split with 9.1% going to Wilson, 6.5% going to Bishop and 2.9% to Begich. Wilson would go on to round three while Bishop would be removed from contention and all his second-place votes would be redistributed to Begich and Wilson.

The final round results would look like this:

— Tom Begich (D) 53.9%

— Bernadette Wilson (R) 46.1%

This amounts to an eight-point victory for Begich in the final round.

While much could change in the coming months, the poll indicates that Begich may be a force to contend with as the contest heats up.

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