According to a newly released poll by Alaska Survey Research, hard-left Democrat Tom Begich holds a slight advantage in the race to become Alaska’s next governor.
While conservatives might take the latest survey by pollster Ivan Moore with a grain of salt, considering he is often characterized as left-of-center, the new poll could be cause for concern for Republicans. Conducted April 16-19, with between 1,612 and 1,923 likely voters, the poll’s margin of error is +/-2.5%.
The survey asked voters the following question regarding the 18 candidates running for governor: “If the election was held today, which of the following likely candidates do you think you would vote for?”
RESULTS
— Tom Begich (D) 19.0%
— Bernadette Wilson (R) 13.5%
— Dave Bronson (R) 9.8%
— Click Bishop (R) 9.0%
The main change this month has Click Bishop entering the top four in place of Democrat Matt Claman.
When the rank-choice voting system is factored in, the results begin to change.
The survey asked respondents to “Rank the following candidates for Alaska Governor in the numerical order of your preference.”
Round 1:
— Tom Begich (D) 41.0%
— Bernadette Wilson (R) 21.8%
— Click Bishop (R) 18.7%
— Dave Bronson (R) 18.6%
Under ranked-choice voting, since Bronson took fourth, he would be removed and all the second-choice candidates under his name would be redistributed as first-place votes for the top three candidates.
After this redistribution, the results would look like this in round 2:
— Tom Begich (D) 43.9%
— Bernadette Wilson (R) 30.9%
— Click Bishop (R) 25.2%
According to the poll, Bronson’s second-choice votes would then split with 9.1% going to Wilson, 6.5% going to Bishop and 2.9% to Begich. Wilson would go on to round three while Bishop would be removed from contention and all his second-place votes would be redistributed to Begich and Wilson.
The final round results would look like this:
— Tom Begich (D) 53.9%
— Bernadette Wilson (R) 46.1%
This amounts to an eight-point victory for Begich in the final round.
While much could change in the coming months, the poll indicates that Begich may be a force to contend with as the contest heats up.
16 Comments
RCV is a cheating, lying system to get democrats elected.
One vote on Election Day in person, and YES with ID.
This next election we need to say NO to RCV and get rid of it.
You missed the boat rcv doesn’t change the result that the polling data shows all the republicans losing, period even if you went first past the post, the party has lost so much trust they aren’t even backing other republicans if their candidate loses.
Point to any aspect of RCV that favors one party over the other.
Please, please don’t say NO. That is how we lost last time. .Your vote has to be YES to repeal. We will be Ballot Measure #2 again.
So, YES on 2!
Please, please don’t say NO. That is how we lost last time. .Your vote has to be YES to repeal. We will be Ballot Measure #2 again.
So, YES on 2!
RCV is not one person- one vote. Scott Kendall and a judge who does not know or care about the Constitution granted RCV to Scott Kendall. It was poorly presented by Kendall and the judge just said yes. This judge did not adjudicate according to the Original Constitution. No one who could have fixed this and throw it out did nothing. We suspect Soros was part of this “fix” because Soros and Zuckerberg were using our voter rolls even though Judicial Watch showed a printed booklet where they were unlawfully acquiring our voter rolls. Lt. Gov Kevin Meyer sold them to those crooks. A chronic problem here is not being corrected. The legislators have not put up the money to move to the mainland during sessions, but that should have happened 10 years ago. By staying on the island only favored people, the lobbyists and NEA can successfully access them. They are paid by our state to fly down and use per diem and vote against us while hiding from the public on the island. (Think of the state money that would be saved if Leglslaters used their own money to travel to work.) Discrimination against Alaskan citizens continues because families and individuals cannot access the legislators there. The newest legislators have been trained into Marxist activism and against the family, God,and marriage with children. Many of these legislators are leftists/Marxists that the NEA and affiliates have dominated the money earned by mineral royalties and guaranteed to citizens in the Alaska Constitution. In addition, Democrats/leftists/Marxists promote abortion, transgenderism and other wacko ideologies. Pray for our State and that those in power at every level will use prayer and make decisions that are wise.
I don’t mind being called left-leaning, but I do mind when it’s used to cast doubt on the work we do. This survey had a sample of almost 2,400 Alaskans. Those that voted for President in 2024 voted 52-40 to Trump, which accurately reflects his win. Republicans in the sample outnumber Democrats 2:1, just as they do in the voter rolls. We even weight the data to reflect the fact that MatSu, the most conservative area of the state, has a marginally higher turnout on election day than other areas of the state. We do our best to make sure our surveys accurately reflect the Alaska population.
With regards RCV, despite the opinion of many that it’s some kind of evil, communist plot, it wouldn’t change the outcome in this particular case. Under the old system, Bernadette Wilson would easily win a Republican primary if the election was held today, while Tom Begich would easily win an Open Primary. The contest between them in the general election would look much like the final round result in this survey.
I know who I am going to vote for and I always win! That’s why I am not going to tell you who the winner will be……….
Republicans must have 1 candidate ONLY. If we don’t we will lose. And RCV has the last laugh at us fools.
I appreciate this information and the information that The Alaska Story put out about the writie-in votes. The write-in votes are being dumped if they don’t come within a certain percentage of the top count, so people are not having their write-in votes counted fairly in the RCV system of elections.
All the Repubs other than Wilson/Shower need to drop out of the race then Wilson/Shower will win by a landslide.
Mr. Who? Chris Tuck?
If we had one ticket, yeah, the Republicans might win by a landslide. And if voting for governor was a Facebook popularity contest, Wilson would win. But leading the state as Governor is about more than owning the club and rocking everyone’s world with the hottest pair of heels (edited for civility). We’re going to be in a mess of ineptitude and intrigue if the Hickel Princess takes up residence in Juneau. Please, vote for a candidate who can do more than re-state the issues and looks good on camera. Vote for someone who has leadership skills and integrity and understands the powers and limits of the executive branch. Alaska is not a reality TV show. Alaska deserves better then Wilson/Shower.
With the democrat’s holiday (International Workers Day) coming upon us, it’s a reminder that they act as a hive mind, zombies when it comes to voting. There will be ONE leftist candidate on the ballot and they will vote blue no matter who. The GOP is muddying the waters with multiple candidates. All GOP candidates need to sit down and figure out who is going to drop out. I know the narcissists won’t. But they need to figure out who has the best chance and bow out, otherwise everybody will lose.
Ian Moore is far more than center left. He is as liberal as one can be. Look at his history of correctness. When Dittman does a poll I will believe it!!
polls are phony.
they all had hillybilly winning
lol!!
not